e⚡TruckTCO
Business case · stress test · eleven countries

Which electric trucks pay off even without the Iran war and without toll breaks?

Today two things help every electric truck: diesel is expensive since the Iran war, and in many countries an electric truck pays little or no road toll. Neither is certain to last. Diesel can come down again, and the toll breaks end: Germany’s, for example, in mid-2031. So we take both away. Diesel back at its price of February 2026, before the war, and no toll advantage anywhere. Which trucks are still cheaper than diesel over five years?

In short

Calculating…

Running the business case for eleven countries and twenty trucks…

1The safe price, country by country

The highest price an electric truck may cost and still be cheaper than a diesel truck over five years, without the war and without any toll break, at 120,000 km a year. Any truck priced below it is safe in that country, whatever happens to diesel or to the tolls. This number needs no guess about any maker’s price. A truck that drives more can cost more:

Five years, the business case’s careful defaults, and a diesel tractor at €120k. The safe price is lowest where diesel is cheap for a transport company (Belgium refunds part of the excise) and highest where it is dear (Switzerland, Denmark).

2Twenty trucks against it

The result over five years per truck against a diesel tractor doing the same kilometres, in thousands of euros, before the Iran war and without tolls. Each truck drives the kilometres its range allows: more range, more kilometres a year, more saved. Green is cheaper than diesel, red more expensive.

more than €75k cheaper€25–75k cheaperup to €25k cheaperup to €25k more expensive€25–75k more expensivemore than €75k more expensive

estimate marks a price or range the maker has not published: see section 4. Range is the maker’s figure; kilometres a year are 80% of it, 230 days a year.

3And today, for comparison

With this week’s diesel price and the tolls an electric truck saves, every one of the twenty trucks is cheaper than diesel in every country. The difference between the groups is how much each depends on those two tailwinds:

4What to keep in mind

Most Chinese prices are our estimate. Nine of the ten Chinese makers have published no European price. We use €224k: Reuters reported in March 2026 that Chinese makers aim to sell up to 30% below the European average of €320,000. BYD is expected at about €250k. Windrose publishes its price (€198k). If a quote is higher, compare it with the safe price in section 1.

Range counts. We take 80% of the maker’s range as what a truck really covers in a day, all year round, and 230 working days with one full charge a day at the depot. A truck with more range does more kilometres a year, and every kilometre driven electric instead of diesel saves money. A truck that also charges during the driver’s break can do more still.

Price is not everything. Ask where the truck is serviced, how fast parts arrive and what it will be worth later. See aftersales and residual value.

One or two charges a day, today or before the war: kilometres a year. Any truck in detail: electric truck or diesel, country by country.

Sources